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報(bào)告題目：A Theory for Seasonal Predictability Barrier

報(bào)告人：劉征宇 教授（俄亥俄州立大學(xué)）

報(bào)告人簡(jiǎn)介：

劉征宇，1982年畢業(yè)于南京氣象學(xué)院獲學(xué)士學(xué)位，1985年獲中國(guó)科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所碩士學(xué)位，1991年獲美國(guó)麻省理工學(xué)院和Woods Hole海洋研究所聯(lián)合博士學(xué)位?，F(xiàn)任美國(guó)俄亥俄州立大學(xué)地理系氣候動(dòng)力學(xué)Thomas教授，主要從事海-地-氣系統(tǒng)相互作用與氣候動(dòng)力學(xué)、大洋環(huán)流動(dòng)力學(xué)、古氣候模擬及地球系統(tǒng)模擬等方面的研究，其領(lǐng)銜的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)多次在Science、Nature、PNAS等頂級(jí)學(xué)術(shù)刊物上發(fā)表研究成果。Google Scholar Citation顯示(截止到2021年1月14日)，劉征宇教授有超過(guò)17000次引，h指數(shù)為68, i10指數(shù)為249。劉征宇教授同時(shí)是美國(guó)科學(xué)促進(jìn)會(huì)(AAAS)會(huì)士、美國(guó)氣象學(xué)會(huì)(AMS)會(huì)士和美國(guó)地球物理學(xué)會(huì)(AGU)會(huì)士。他曾長(zhǎng)期擔(dān)任威斯康辛大學(xué)麥迪遜分校氣候研究中心主任職務(wù)，擔(dān)任美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)基金(NSF)古時(shí)研究組成員、CCSM古氣候模擬工作組聯(lián)合主席、氣候變率與可預(yù)測(cè)性計(jì)劃(CLIVAR)科學(xué)指導(dǎo)委員會(huì)成員等學(xué)術(shù)團(tuán)體職務(wù)。

Abstract

A theory is developed in stochastic climate models for understanding the general features of seasonal predictability barrier (PB), which is characterized by a band of maximum decline in autocorrelation function phase-locked to a particular season. The theory is first developed in the damped persistence model. Our theory determines the forcing threshold, timing and intensity of the seasonal PB as a function of the damping rate and seasonal forcing. A seasonal PB is found to be an intrinsic feature of a stochastic climate system forced by either seasonal growth rate or seasonal noise forcing. A PB is generated when the seasonal forcing, relative to the damping rate, exceeds a modest threshold. Once generated, all the PBs occur on the same calendar month, forming a seasonal PB. The PB season is determined by the decline of the seasonal forcing as well as the delayed response associated with damping. The intensity of the PB is determined mainly by the amplitude of the seasonal forcing. The theory is able to explain the general features of the seasonal PB of the observed SST variability over the world. The PB theory is further developed in a recharge oscillator model with the application to ENSO seasonal PB in both SST and heat content. Our theory provides a general framework for the understanding of the seasonal PB of climate variability.

時(shí)間：2021年04月30日（周五）21:00-23:00

報(bào)告方式：騰訊會(huì)議，會(huì)議號(hào)：790 531 659

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